The Griliches Question: What is the return on investment of R&D?
The first research challenge to be tackled by a pop-up journal is to estimate the return on investment (ROI) associated with research and development (R&D) activities.
The importance of this question — sometimes referred to as "the Griliches Question" — has been recognized since Harvard Professor Zvi Griliches began his pioneering studies of innovation in the 1950s. Developing a better understanding of the answer could be hugely important for developing policies to increase growth and productivity.
Today, for example, the US government spends a little over 0.6% of GDP, or 60 cents out of every $100 produced in the country, on scientific and technological R&D. It does so because it believes the fruits of that research are sufficiently valuable to justify spending. But there is little consensus on how large these benefits are. Are we getting $2 in benefits for every $1 we invest? Or is it more like $20?
Since published assessments of the ROI on R&D vary widely, the initiative's funders are challenging researchers to converge on more trustworthy estimates by working together in new ways. Many pieces of evidence may need to be examined and assembled in order to arrive at a satisfying picture of R&D's effects on the economy. Experts who start out with a variety of different expectations about ROI values will, ideally, find more and more consensus, both on the range of possible answers and how those answers depend on specific contexts and assumptions.
Refinements on the Griliches Question may concern, for example:
- Average versus marginal ROI
- Government versus private sector ROI
- Short- versus long-term ROI
- National versus global benefits
- Effects on GDP versus health gains or broader measures of social welfare
Regarding this last point, the initial emphasis of our initiative will be on economic estimates of direct concern to decisionmakers — though we appreciate that this hardly captures all the considerations that ought to play a role in making R&D investments.
The Pop-Up Journal
The Griliches Question pop-up journal is hosted by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) and guided by a Steering Committee of leading scholars and policymakers. Together, they will curate research on this question, help researchers coordinate their work, and communicate progress in each issue.
The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) will serve as the host organization for the first pop-up journal, focused on the returns to R&D investment.
The project will be led by co-Principal Investigators Tim Simcoe (Boston University) and Craig Garthwaite (Northwestern University), both established professors of strategy and innovation, with deep expertise in the economics of R&D and innovation policy. A steering committee of leading scholars and policymakers will help guide research priorities and commissioned work over the five-year project period.
As part of this effort, NBER will:
- Host an annual research conference in Washington, D.C. exploring unresolved aspects of estimating the returns to R&D
- Commission original research papers advancing our understanding of R&D returns
- Maintain an up-to-date synthesis on the state of knowledge, accessible to policymakers and non-specialists
- Track how expert views on this question evolve as new evidence emerges
The journal may also include previously published work (with appropriate context), interactive digital features, methodological refinements, and preliminary findings. Because its primary value lies in organizing and presenting progress on answering the question, the journal will not only publish original research but will also draw on relevant results published in traditional outlets.
The project is supported by Coefficient Giving and the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation.
Research Funding
A consortium of funders, led by the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation and Coefficient Giving, is seeking to support primary research that can help develop consensus estimates of the return on investments in research and development (R&D). This coordinated call aims to spur rigorous, empirical studies that can narrow the range of existing estimates and inform public and private R&D investment decisions.
In addition, there are several other funders who have historically supported research related to the Griliches Question, including:
- The British Academy
- U.S. National Science Foundation
- National Institutes of Health SOS:Bio Program
- UK Research and Innovation
These organizations will apply their own independent procedures and criteria concerning what grants they make.
Grants of approximately $250,000 are available for studies that will provide key empirical insight into the social and economic returns to R&D investment. Larger requests may be considered for uniquely ambitious projects.
Deadline: April 30, 2026
Read the full call for letters of inquiry →
Application Process
Letters of inquiry should be emailed to info@popupjournal.com by April 30, 2026. Complete LOI packets should include:
- A 1-page cover sheet with the project title, principal investigator name and contact information, administering institution, purpose statement, amount requested, project duration, and preferred start date;
- A project description of 1–2 pages addressing: the core research question and its importance, current knowledge gaps, proposed methodology and workplan, key team members, expected outputs and dissemination plans, and budget details;
- A references list of up to 2 pages;
- Brief CVs of key project leads (up to 2 pages each); and
- Optional letters of support from research partners or collaborators.
For complete submission details, see the full call for letters of inquiry.
Review Process
Staff from the Sloan Foundation and Coefficient Giving, together with a group of experts, will review letters of inquiry after the April 30 deadline. A small number of selected submissions will be invited to prepare full proposals for consideration.
For meritorious letters of inquiry, the expert group will also provide letters of recommendation for research proposals submitted to other funders, including the British Academy, the National Science Foundation, the NIH SOS:Bio Program, and UK Research and Innovation.
Questions about the call, eligibility, or the submission process should be directed to info@popupjournal.com.
Advisory Board
The Pop-Up Journal Initiative is guided by an Advisory Board of distinguished scholars and practitioners who bring deep expertise in research, policy, and institutional design.