The Griliches Question: What is the return on investment of R&D?
The first research challenge to be tackled by a pop-up journal is to estimate the return on investment (ROI) associated with research and development (R&D) activities.
The importance of this question — sometimes referred to as "the Griliches Question" — has been recognized since Harvard Professor Zvi Griliches began his pioneering studies of innovation in the 1950s. Developing a better understanding of the answer could be hugely important for developing policies to increase growth and productivity.
Today, for example, the US government spends a little over 0.6% of GDP, or 60 cents out of every $100 produced in the country, on scientific and technological R&D. It does so because it believes the fruits of that research are sufficiently valuable to justify spending. But there is little consensus on how large these benefits are. Are we getting $2 in benefits for every $1 we invest? Or is it more like $20?
Since published assessments of the ROI on R&D vary widely, the initiative's funders are challenging researchers to converge on more trustworthy estimates by working together in new ways. Many pieces of evidence may need to be examined and assembled in order to arrive at a satisfying picture of R&D's effects on the economy. Experts who start out with a variety of different expectations about ROI values will, ideally, find more and more consensus, both on the range of possible answers and how those answers depend on specific contexts and assumptions.
Refinements on the Griliches Question may concern, for example:
- Average versus marginal ROI
- Government versus private sector ROI
- Short- versus long-term ROI
- National versus global benefits
- Effects on GDP versus health gains or broader measures of social welfare
Regarding this last point, the initial emphasis of our initiative will be on economic estimates of direct concern to decisionmakers — though we appreciate that this hardly captures all the considerations that ought to play a role in making R&D investments.
The Pop-Up Journal
The Griliches Question pop-up journal will be curated by a host organization and guided by a Steering Committee of prominent scholars and decisionmakers. Together, they will curate research on this question, help researchers coordinate their work, and communicate progress in each issue.
The journal is planned as a multi-year effort. Each annual issue will bring together several key elements:
- Commissioned and carefully selected research papers advancing our understanding of R&D
- An accessible review essay synthesizing the state of knowledge for non-specialists, including policymakers
- Expert elicitation tracking how estimates of the answer are evolving over time
- An annual conference convening researchers and decisionmakers to discuss progress
The journal may also include previously published work (with appropriate context), interactive digital features, methodological refinements, and preliminary findings. Because its primary value lies in organizing and presenting progress on answering the question, the journal will not only publish original research but will also draw on relevant results published in traditional outlets.
Research Funding
In recognition of the importance of the Griliches Question, a consortium of research funders has expressed interest in supporting research that can rigorously contribute to developing consensus estimates of the return on R&D investments. This consortium includes the following organizations, as well as other public and private funders domestic and abroad:
- Alfred P. Sloan Foundation
- Coefficient Giving
- UKRI Economic and Social Research Council
- The British Academy
These funders will make their own funding decisions, according to the process of their choice.
Application Process
If you'd like to apply for research support, please submit a brief "letter of inquiry" to info@popupjournal.com. Letters should be 1-2 pages, and should contain:
- A brief statement about the nature and purpose of the proposed project;
- A description of the proposed work to be supported;
- An estimate of the total cost of the project and the amount you plan to actually request;
- An estimate of the project's duration;
- Your title and contact information; and
- The names, affiliations, and titles of other key members of the project, if any.
Review Process
A group of experts — as well as staff from Sloan and Coefficient Giving — will review letters of inquiry on a rolling basis, and provide feedback and letters of recommendation that can be included in applications to the above funders. Note that these letters of recommendation are purely advisory, and do not guarantee funding.
If you have any questions, please contact info@popupjournal.com.
Advisory Board
The Pop-Up Journal Initiative is guided by an Advisory Board of distinguished scholars and practitioners who bring deep expertise in research, policy, and institutional design.